Update Climate
Climate change needs to be kept in perspective, not forgotten.
We interrupt our scheduled programming about the struggling U.S. electricity system with a news alert about climate change: It’s still happening.
Of course, we knew that here on the energy adventure, having delved into the realities, and seriousness, of our changing climate in my stock-taking series last year, Looking Back, Looking Ahead.
Yet climate concerns have noticeably taken a back seat in public debate of late, even among the climate concerned and here at The Energy Adventure(r).
That’s partly due to the extreme views, and actions, of the Trump administration, attacking and dismantling anything the President associates with climate action. It’s partly because many people — even some among the climate concerned — worried the issue was getting overweening priority in a more-immediately troubled world.
And, paradoxically and more happily, it’s due to remarkable progress being made on other fronts. That includes the rapid uptake of renewable energy globally for reasons almost entirely unrelated to worries over climate change. Economic and security concerns are leading to some of the same places as climate action.
We’ve examined how both of these factors are converging in a global paradigm shift driven by the conflict in the Persian Gulf.
But a recent spate of news has thrust vexing climate concerns back into the headlines. Amid everything else, they remind us the earth continues to warm as greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise.
That’s a problem imposing costs today. These will compound if the pace of warming continues to accelerate, as it has in recent years for reasons scientists are still puzzling over.
The recent news outbreaks include:
— Another record summer heatwave across Europe, which remains ill-prepared despite a similar record-setting wave just a few years ago.
— Another summer of wildfires across Canada, bringing the world’s-worst air quality readings to parts of southern Canada and the United States, including the densely populated northeastern and mid-Atlantic seaboards.
— The beginning of a new El Niño cycle that could turn out to be among the strongest ever, wreaking havoc with weather and fueling disasters across the globe.
At the same time — confusingly for many not following longstanding climate debates — one of the most alarming official climate change scenarios was recently dismissed as unrealistic and overblown.
What’s going on here?
Well, a lot. The complexities of climate change are many.
But in short, a particularly extreme theoretical scenario that had long framed much of the climate debate — despite being criticized even by many worried about climate change — was finally, belatedly, and resoundingly debunked.
You can read a detailed explanation here.
This finding does not mean climate scientists have been, in the all-caps social media rant of President Trump, “WRONG, WRONG, WRONG” about climate change all along. Rather, it acknowledges that a particular extreme theoretical scenario too often defined the larger climate debate. Rather than encouraging climate action, it likely undermined efforts.
Other alarming impacts of climate change remain within the realm of possibility in the span of a few lifetimes. Some of these are likely making themselves known today. They’re already inflicting damage, registering costs, warning us that heading off future warming where possible is worth the effort.
In many ways, getting out ahead of climate change as best we can will cost far less than trying to live with the impacts later. Some of the impacts — from melted glaciers to the loss of rainforest — will not be reversible once they’ve happened. Indeed, they could spur a spiraling further acceleration.
Adjusting then would be exponentially harder, especially for those living in the poorest, most vulnerable parts of the world. Even the world’s biggest and richest institutions would be harshly affected.
“When change accelerates, systems can be pushed toward thresholds faster than society and markets can adapt,” Sarah Kapnick, the head of JPMorgan Chase Bank’s climate advisory business, told Bloomberg recently.
A study from insurance giant Allianz showed the ratcheting up of heat waves globally over the last half century in terms of both the number and the deaths they have caused. Economic damage from heat stress — mainly from humans slowing down and air conditioning cranking up — compounds rapidly once temperatures rise above 86 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celcius), they analysis showed.
Those economic losses become a pincer of falling tax revenues and rising infrastructure spending demands for governments.
The European Union recently estimated member countries will have to spend 70 billion euros to adapt to a warming climate. That includes 30 billion euros on infrastructure like roads, bridges, ports and airports; 21 billion euros to undergird natural ecosystems; and 12 billion euros to assure they can feed their populations.
Of course, one of the most important ways to help communities rich and poor address and adapt to climate change is delivering them more energy and more of the superpowers that flow from it.
Among the most promising is artificial intelligence, which could enable all sorts of new ways to produce, store and use energy more effectively and efficiently. It’s already happening.
But we need to deliver the energy for these breakthroughs as sustainably as possible or we risk undermining the very benefits we pursue. That means whittling away at fossil fuel use even as we dramatically expand the use of electricity.
Which is why we will now return to our regularly scheduled deep-dive into the troubled electrical heart of the world’s largest economy.
You mean you're for what works? Excellent. However you don't mention that climate change (or variation?) in the poorest parts of the world is likely to have enormous effects on migration and thus on immigration, whether to the US, the EU or elsewhere.
PS Thank you very much for the opportunity to comment--I'm tired of hobby journalists holding me to ransom for cash subscriptions before I can read their lucubrations!